Research Full Article

UDC 352

Abstract.  The relevance of research. The article introduces and substantiates the 20th factor in the stratagem modeling system — the integral vulnerability of a person, organization, nation and state. In contrast to the classical understanding of vulnerability as a technical or information “hole”, the author’s concept considers vulnerability as a system property derived from previously developed parameters. Methodology. The developed method of stratagem modeling, historical analysis, and situational analysis was used. Results. Exponential mathematical models of vulnerability are proposed, including seven key arguments, as well as a new formula for the rate of vulnerability increase with eight indicators. For the first time, the timing of the onset of critical vulnerability for the European Union has been calculated based on current data from 2025-2026. Three strategies have been developed to purposefully create vulnerabilities for the EU, including scenarios of using foreign economic dependence, political division, and a shortage of critical competencies. Historical examples show the evolution of Russia’s vulnerabilities from the Time of Troubles to modern mental warfare. Conclusions. The novelty of the approach lies in the transition from a qualitative description of vulnerabilities to quantitative, verifiable modeling suitable for decision support systems in the field of national security and competition.

Keywords: vulnerability, stratagem modeling, competition, mental warfare, the European Union, mathematical modeling, bifurcation, rates of vulnerability increase, critical vulnerability, exponential models, energy dependence, political fragmentation, institutional degradation, military-industrial complex, hybrid threats.

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